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Pulses Inflation to Remain Elevated Until October Due to Supply Gaps: Experts


Published Date: May 30, 2024
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Looking to export pulses? India, despite being one of the largest producers of pulses globally, continues to import significant quantities to satisfy its growing domestic demand. The recent spike in pulse prices, driven by inflation and production shortfalls, has opened up substantial opportunities for global exporters.

As local production struggles to meet demand, Pulses Exporters stand a chance to benefit from this lucrative market. If you are a pulses exporter, keep reading this article to know the current scenario in the Indian pulses market. So, let us get started. 

Domestic Production and Rising Consumption:

India's pulse production for the 2022-23 crop year stood at 26.05 million tonnes, while annual consumption reached approximately 28 million tonnes. This discrepancy between production and consumption underscores the necessity of imports to bridge the gap. The increasing purchasing power of Indian consumers has further fueled demand, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.

Inflation and Price Pressures:

April saw pulse inflation hitting 16.8%, with specific varieties like tur (pigeon pea) and urad (black gram) witnessing inflation rates of 31.4% and 14.3% respectively. Such significant price hikes reflect the ongoing strain on the supply chain. Pulses contribute 6% to the food basket and 2.4% to the overall consumer price index, making their price stability crucial for controlling food inflation.

Government Measures and Import Strategies:

To address these challenges, the Indian government has proactively taken measures to import pulses. Measures such as placing tur, urad, and masoor under a zero-duty import regime until March 2025 aim to stabilise prices and ensure sufficient supply. Additionally, the duty-free import of yellow peas, extended until June, further highlights the government's commitment to mitigating inflation through increased imports.

Monsoon and Future Production Outlook:

The monsoon's progress is a critical factor in determining future pulse production. Experts like Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, emphasise that the success of the monsoon season will significantly influence pulse inflation. With the next sowing season for major pulses like tur and urad starting in June-July, and harvesting in October-November and January respectively, the upcoming monsoon will be pivotal in shaping production outcomes and determining the total number in volume to import pulses

Persistent Inflationary Pressures:

Analysts predict that pulse inflation will remain high until the end of the second quarter of FY24. If monsoon conditions are unfavourable, inflation could persist even longer. This sustained inflation is expected to drive continued import demand, offering ongoing opportunities for global pulses exporters to tap into the Indian market.

Conclusion:

India's reliance on pulse imports to balance domestic demand and mitigate inflationary pressures presents a golden opportunity for global exporters. Despite high domestic production, the mismatch between supply and demand, coupled with inflationary trends, necessitates a robust import strategy. As the government and traders intensify efforts to secure imports, international pulses exporters are well-positioned to capitalise on this demand, ensuring a steady flow of pulses into India to maintain price stability and food security.

If you want to export or Import Pulses In Bulk, Tradologie.com is the best B2B platform. It facialites the bulk transactions without any middlemen through its state-of-the-art SaaS platform. Visit www.tradologie.com to explore B2B export opportunities and stay updated with the latest trends in the industry. 

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