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Amid Black Sea Turmoil, Wheat Set For 9% Weekly Climb; As India Rice Export Issues Emerge

By Pravarsh Sharma

Aug 04, 2023 | 10 min read

Category - Wheat

According to today's report, “Wheat edged lower but is still poised for a weekly gain of more than 9%, as military drills in the Black Sea add to the risks of disrupting grain trade from a crucial producing region.” 

Approximately 40% of all rice exports worldwide come from India, making it the largest exporter in the world. It is followed by Thailand and Vietnam, where the cost of 5% broken rice has also increased this year, increasing the cost for nations wishing to get around New Delhi's ban. According to analysts, increased prices for the grain, a staple for billions of people worldwide, are likely to fuel global food inflation. 

Agricultural Trade Situation In The War Countries 

This comes at the end of a volatile week in which the Kremlin canceled a deal allowing Ukraine to export grain through some Black Sea ports and then striking the country's agricultural facilities. Both countries have warned that ships bound for each other's ports could be classified as military targets. 

Russian missiles struck grain terminals at an agricultural enterprise in the Odessa region in a fourth straight night of airstrikes on southern Ukraine, the regional governor said on Friday, according to Reuters News. The attacks from Russia, however, appeared to be less severe than on the three previous nights, when missiles and drones struck southern cities and ports after Moscow pulled out of a U.N.-brokered deal allowing safe shipments of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. 

According to James Whitlam, a product director at Concirrus, a marine data and analytics platform, “The suspension of the deal between Russia and Ukraine also has implications for maritime insurers and shipowners, who will no longer have insurance coverage to travel to Ukrainian ports.” Ships were able to obtain insurance coverage under a temporary agreement while the agreement between Russia and Ukraine was in force.

Mr. Whitlam said, “Insurance markets are currently scurrying about trying to understand what exposure they have.” 

Russia's ambassador to Washington said on Thursday in comments posted by his embassy that despite claims made by the United States, “Russia is not preparing to attack civilian ships in the Black Sea.” 

Future Predictions 

In the meantime, according to Courtney Bonnell of the Associated Press, “Ukraine's economy is based on agriculture, and prior to the war, 75% of its grain exports went through the Black Sea. It has the option of sending its food through Europe by land or river, but these routes are limited in their capacity compared to sea shipments, and their use has sparked resentment in the region's neighbors.” 

However, the Ukrainian Grain Association wants to send more grain to the Black Sea ports in neighboring Romania, claiming that it is possible to double monthly exports along that route to 4 million metric tons. 

Rice Export Situation In India 

According to reports, India has banned the export of non-basmati white rice, fueling concerns about further global food inflation at the same time that Russia's attack on grain ships has increased the price of wheat and corn. India's Ministry of Consumer Affairs announced on Thursday that it would prohibit exports in order to 'lower prices and ensure availability in the domestic market.’ 

According to the ministry, rice prices in India have risen 11.5% year on year and 3% month on month, reflecting a 35% year on year increase in export volumes between April and June. 

Also today, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Javier Blas wrote, "According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, global food prices are down more than a fifth from their 2022 peak. Wheat costs have decreased by 50%, corn costs have decreased by 33%, and soybean costs have

decreased by 15%. The only issue is the price of rice, which has increased by 30% from a year ago to a two-year high.” “But Ukraine does not export any rice, and the increase is being driven more by crop damage concerns than by war.” 

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