Vegetable oil prices have recovered from a recent drop, but they continue to be pressured by the seasonal increase in soybean and palm oil supply, as well as falling oil prices.

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Edible Oil Pricing & Production

The price of soybean oil in Chicago and palm oil in Malaysia increased by 2.2–3.2% during the course of the week, offsetting the 3.2% decrease in oil prices over the week. The July soybean oil futures in Chicago rose 3.2% this week to 980 $/t (-9% for the month) on news of a 1-2 million ton soybean loss in Brazil. On Monday, Malaysian palm oil futures rose 2.2% to 3930 ringgit/t, or $830/t, on forecasts of adverse weather in Indonesia.

The Indonesian Meteorological Agency has issued a warning that thunderstorms and tornadoes may strike the country between May 7 and May 13, causing landslides and flooding. From May to August, 64% of the country will experience a dry season, reducing palm tree yields. On the Dalian stock exchange, the most active contract for soybean oil rose 1.51% yesterday, while palm oil rose 2.22%. 

India, the world's largest buyer of vegetable oils, increased its imports of edible oils by 13% to 1.3 million tons in April compared to March, with palm oil up 41% to a three-month high of 682 thousand tons and soybean oil up 79% to a ten-month high of 391 thousand tons, while sunflower oil imports fell by 48% to 233 thousand tons. Purchases have increased due to lower crude palm oil (CPO) prices for the month by 50 $/t to 920 $/t CIF (for delivery to India in June), while soybean offers 920 $/t and sunflower offers 945 $/t.

Trading Economics reports that throughout the course of the week, the average price of sunflower oil for delivery to buyers decreased by 0.7% to $851 $/t. In Ukraine, this price decreased by 5–10 $/t to $780–790 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

India and China's demand for Russian sunflower oil decreased slightly as a result of the 5–10 $/t increase in export prices to 815-825 $/t FOB Black sea ports. The exporters' willingness to sell oil at this price is confirmed by the indicative price of 766.7 $/t for sunflower oil in Russia, which is used to determine the export duty (which is 0% rate this season).

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