A new NITI Aayog report has highlighted the urgent need to diversify from wheat and rice to pulses and oilseeds in order to bridge the demand-supply gap by 2047-2048. This comes amid protests by farmers at the Punjab-Haryana border demanding the legalization of the minimum support price (MSP).
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India's Pulses and Edible Oil Production
In a business-as-usual scenario, India's production of pulses will increase to approximately 47 million tonnes (mt) by 2047-2048 from 23 mt in 2019-20, while demand will grow to almost 49 mt during this period, leaving a gap of almost 2 mt, according to a report by working group on demand and supply projections in agriculture on Tuesday.
“Their current production of pulses is insufficient to meet demand. This gap may persist in the future in the absence of yield improvements and acreage allocation,” the report stated. The report also projected that edible oil demand would rise to around 31 mt by 2047-48 from 22 mt in 2019-20, while production would increase to around 24 mt from 12 mt during the same period, resulting in a demand-supply gap of around 7 mt. “Augmentation of oilseed yield and production from secondary sources can close the gap in the short run while achieving self-sufficiency in the long run,” the report stated.
India's Food Demand & Production
In contrast, the report stated that in the business-as-usual scenario, rice production is estimated to be 145 mt and 154 mt, while rice demand is predicted to be 110 mt in 2030-2031 and 114 mt in 2047-2048.
According to the report, wheat production should also be adequate to meet future demand, with a surplus of 20-26 mt in 2030-31 and 40-67 mt in 2047-48. According to the report, “this suggests the need for a reallocation of area under rice and wheat to other crops.”
Earlier this week, the Center suggested buying marketable surplus in the cases of masoor (lentil), urad (black gram), arhar (pigeon pea), maize, and cotton over the next five years at their MSPs in an effort to break the logjam in negotiations with the protesting farmers. According to the research, the overall food demand is predicted to increase at an annual rate of 2.44% by 2047-2048 under the "business as usual" scenario, which entails maintaining the current economic growth rate of 6.34% going forward. Should the economic growth pick up speed, it would reach 3.07% fast.
According to the NITI report, the total demand for food grains was projected to be between 326 and 334 mt in 2030-2031 and between 402 and 437 mt in 2047-2048. According to projections, foodgrain production under business-as-usual conditions will exceed demand by 10-13% (34-42 mt) in 2030-31 and by 5-14% (22-55 mt) in 2047-48.
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