Today's October NY world sugar #11 (SBV24) is up +0.39 (+2.05%). October's London ICE White Sugar #5 (SWV24) has increased by +20.60 (+3.92%). 

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Sugar Production Brazil 

Sugar prices rose to 1-1/4-month highs today, building on Monday's sharp rally. Brazil's top sugar-producing state, Sao Paulo, has seen massive fires due to drought and extreme heat that have harmed sugar crops. Sugar cane industry group Orplana said that as many as 2,000 fire outbreaks over the past weekend affected as much as 60,000 hectares of planted sugarcane in Sao Paulo. Green Pool Commodity Specialists said that as much as 5 MMT of sugar cane may have been lost due to the fires. 

Since Conab, the Brazilian government's crop forecasting agency, reduced its 2024-2025 Brazil Center South sugar production estimate to 42 MMT from a previous forecast of 42.7 MMT last Thursday, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat, sugar prices have sharply increased. Separately, a Unica report on August 13 stated that Brazil's Center-South sugar production increased by +8% y/y to 20.753 MMT in the 2024-2025 marketing year through July. 

India's Sugar Production & Exports 

A factor that is bearish for sugar prices is the belief that India's monsoon rains, which are above average, will result in a bumper crop of sugar.

As of August 19, India had received 632.5 mm of rain during the current monsoon season, according to a report released by the Indian Meteorological Department on Monday. This is 3% more than the corresponding long-term average of 611.8 mm. 

On July 3, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISM) declared a 3.6 MMT surplus and 9.1 MMT of sugar reserves for 2023-2024. In order to maintain sufficient domestic supplies, India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023. After allowing mills to export a record 11.1 MMT of sugar the previous season, India only permitted mills to export 6.1 MMT of sugar until September 30, 2023. 

Separately, the ISM reported on May 13 that India's 2023/24 sugar production from Oct-Apr fell -1.6% y/y to 31.4 MMT, and on July 30 it projected India's 2024/25 sugar production would fall by -2% y/y to 33.31 MMT. On August 8, the ISM said it would maintain its curbs on sugar exports to ensure adequate domestic supplies and boost India's ethanol output. 

Thailand's Sugar Production 

Thailand ranks third globally in terms of sugar production and second in terms of sugar exports. Thailand's record heatwave, which could harm the nation's sugarcane crops, is encouraging for sugar prices. The Meteorological Department of Thailand announced on May 6 that April temperatures in over thirty-six of the country's seventy-seven provinces reached record highs, with new highs surpassing records dating back to 1958. This year's crushed cane yield in Thailand is the lowest in at least 13 years, according to sugar millers. On the other hand, the Thai government estimated on April 22 that the country produced 8.77 MMT of sugar between December and April 17, 2023-2024 more than the 7.5 MMT estimated in February by the Thai Sugar Millers Corp. 

Global Sugar Production

According to the USDA's bi-annual report, which was made public on May 23, global sugar production is expected to reach a record high of 186.024 MMT in 2024-25, up 1.4% year over year, while global human sugar consumption is expected to rise to a record high of 178.788 MMT, up 0.8% year over year. According to USDA projections, global sugar ending stocks in 2024-2025 would drop 4.7% year over year to 38.339 MMT, a 13-year low. 

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) increased its estimate of the global sugar deficit for 2023-2024 from a February estimate of -689,000 MT to -2.95 MMT on June 10, which is a factor that supports sugar prices. Aside from that, ISO increased its estimate of the world's sugar demand for 2023-2024 to 182.2 MMT from 180.4 MMT, citing increases in India's consumption data. 

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