According to a recent report, Brazil's summer corn crop may break production records after growing regions experience favorable weather, as analysts look for new export prospects.
Early reports from the country's central and southern corn-producing regions indicate that the summer crop is yielding well. According to market intelligence analyst Raphael Bulascoschi, "the climate is very good."
The summer crop makes up around 20% of the total production each year. Next month, a bigger crop that accounts for roughly 80% of the nation's supply will be planted. According to Bulascoschi, climate models for the first half of 2025 indicate that favorable growing conditions will persist until the start of the following crop.
Joana Colussi, a professor at the University of Illinois, said, "We are very close to a historical harvest in terms of yields." Colussi added that this season might produce the second-largest harvest ever if predictions are met.
According to Bulascoschi, any increase in Brazilian productivity will boost the nation's exports because there is little space for domestic consumption to grow and little capacity for storing grain.
The University of Illinois reports that in the fiscal year 2023, Brazil exported 56 million tons of corn, surpassing the United States for the third time in a decade.
China, the biggest importer of corn worldwide, has made it a goal to become agriculturally self-sufficient. As Beijing's aspirations for food security have grown in recent years, so too have its domestic corn production capabilities.
Some economic headwinds should also help Brazil's farmers. The country's currency has fallen significantly in value against the dollar. If it remains low, Colussi believes Brazilian producers will have a price advantage in international markets.
Colussi, on the other hand, was skeptical that increased productivity and a strong harvest in 2024-2025 would inevitably result in higher exports. Approximately 20% of Brazil's corn is used for domestic ethanol production, and rising demand in the sector may drive more corn toward domestic consumption.
