Nigeria’s wheat trade with the United States is no longer a seasonal procurement story. It is turning into a structural feature of the country’s food supply chain—and the numbers now make that hard to ignore.
According to the United States Mission in Nigeria, bilateral agricultural trade is expected to cross US$700 million by fall 2025, with wheat doing most of the heavy lifting. A recent 50,000-tonne US wheat shipment unloaded at Apapa Port, valued at roughly US$15 million and purchased by Flour Mills of Nigeria (FMN), is just one visible marker of a much larger shift underway.
For wheat traders, millers, and agri-supply businesses, the signal is clear: Nigeria is locking in US wheat as a core supply source, not a stopgap option.
The Data Behind the Headlines
- Recent USDA-aligned trade data tells the story more bluntly than any diplomatic statement:
- 2023/24: 299,000 metric tonnes of US wheat imported
- 2024/25: 916,000 metric tonnes, a 206% surge year-on-year
- 2025/26 (forecast): ~300,000 metric tonnes
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That spike in 2024/25 wasn’t speculative buying. It reflected real demand meeting constrained alternatives.
The easing forecast for 2025/26 does not signal reduced dependence. Instead, it points to a return to a sustainable baseline—one that still leaves Nigeria heavily reliant on imports for industrial milling requirements.
Why Nigeria Keeps Coming Back to US Wheat
Nigeria consumes several million tonnes of wheat annually. Domestic production covers only a fraction of that, even with government-backed initiatives promoting irrigation farming and improved seed varieties.
For industrial millers, the constraints are practical, not ideological:
- Local wheat yields remain inconsistent
- Protein specifications for bread and pasta are hard to meet at scale
- Supply continuity matters more than origin politics
US wheat continues to meet these needs reliably. It offers:
- Consistent milling quality
- Predictable shipment schedules
- Contract structures that large processors can work with That reliability has gained importance since the Russia–Ukraine war reshaped Black Sea grain flows, forcing buyers across Africa to rethink sourcing risk.
The Role of Large Buyers Like FMN
Flour Mills of Nigeria sits at the centre of this trade flow. As one of the country’s largest processors, FMN supplies flour, semolina, and pasta to households, bakeries, and institutional buyers nationwide.
Despite investments in backward integration—cassava processing, sugar estates, local sourcing initiatives—wheat imports remain non-negotiable for its operations.
For US wheat exporters, this matters. Nigeria isn’t buying opportunistically. It is buying to keep factories running, shelves stocked, and jobs intact across milling, baking, and food processing.
Trade Value Is Rising, Even When Volumes Cool.
While wheat dominates the narrative, it isn’t the only contributor to the growing trade figure. US agricultural exports to Nigeria also include:
- Soybeans and animal feed inputs
- Poultry and dairy products
- Food preparations and beverages
On the other side, Nigeria exports smaller volumes of cocoa, sesame, and processed foods to the US market.
Even if wheat volumes normalise after the 2024/25 surge, wheat trade value remains elevated, supported by:
- Currency pressures on the naira
- Higher landed costs
- Strong demand for quality grain
In short, fewer tonnes does not automatically mean smaller trade numbers.
Logistics Is Part of the Story Too
Apapa Port’s role is becoming more prominent. As Nigeria’s busiest seaport, it has seen higher agricultural cargo throughput in recent months, driven by importers securing supplies ahead of demand peaks.
For logistics providers, wheat traders, and port-linked service companies, grain imports are once again a dependable volume driver.
What This Means for B2B Stakeholders
For wheat exporters, traders, and agri-businesses, the takeaway is straightforward:
- Nigeria’s wheat imports are structural, not cyclical
- US wheat suppliers are now embedded in Nigeria’s food security equation
- Demand spikes may moderate, but baseline dependence will persist
- Large buyers will continue prioritising consistency over price-only plays
This isn’t about Nigeria abandoning domestic production goals. It’s about acknowledging reality: industrial demand has outpaced what local farms can currently deliver.
Until that gap closes, US wheat—and US agricultural trade more broadly—will remain a cornerstone of Nigeria’s food economy.
