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Russia and India Poised to Cause Major Shift in Global Wheat Balance

Published Date: June 05, 2024

For a number of years, the world's wheat supply has been steadily declining to levels not seen in decades, even though the situation hasn't turned out to be as dire as initially anticipated. But this season's combination of lost Russian cropland and upcoming imports from India might be sufficient to start that fall and keep wheat prices stable globally.

Are you looking to buy bulk wheat? Russian consulting firm Sovecon reduced the production estimate for the leading wheat exporter for 2024–25 on Tuesday from 85.7 million metric tons to 82.1 million. That came after IKAR's Monday drop to 81.5 million tons from 83.5 million tons, which was much less than Russia's record crop of over 104 million tons in 2022–2023 and its previous harvest of 92.8 million tons. 

Global Wheat Supplies Face 8% Drop as Russia Struggles, India Buys

In March, analysts forecast Russia’s 2024-25 wheat output at 93-94 million tons, but dry spring weather and frost have reduced this by around 12 million tons (13%). Meanwhile, India may scrap wheat import duties after June due to low reserves, potentially boosting imports to 3-5 million tons from just 120,000 tons last year. The combined impact of Russia's shortfall and India's potential imports could reduce global wheat supplies by 17 million tons, about 8% of the USDA's 2024-25 world wheat export forecast. You can choose B2B platforms like to Buy Wheat In Bulk  seamlessly without any trouble. 

The USDA projects Egypt as the largest wheat importer in 2024-25 at 12 million tons, with India potentially importing 5 million tons, making it the 12th largest importer, similar to Japan or Nigeria. India's last major wheat import, 6 million tons, was in 2016-17. In 2021-22, India exported a record 8 million tons due to high domestic supplies and global prices.

Global Wheat Stocks-to-Use at 17-Year Low, Tightening Grip on Supply

According to the USDA's preliminary 2024–25 estimate, major exporters who export bulk wheat worldwide, wheat stocks-to-use will fall to 13.5%, a 17-year low, from 14.7% last year. Stocks could, however, become even more scarce given that India is not expecting to import wheat and that the Russian harvest forecast of 88 million tons is greater than anticipated. Widening the discrepancy with estimates from Russian consultants, the USDA's estimate of Russian wheat does not include Crimea.

A notable shift in exporter stocks-to-use historically corresponds with a considerable shift in production from the previous season, suggesting that a 3% decrease in 2023–24 production will probably cause a decline in 2024–25. This tendency is also influenced by other variables, such as trade and grain yield worldwide. Thursday saw a 1.7% decline in Chicago wheat futures, down more than 5% from Tuesday.


In conclusion, there could be an 8% decline in the world's wheat supply as a result of Russia's sharp decline in the cultivation of wheat and India's possible rise in wheat imports. This change, along with an anticipated 17-year low in world wheat stocks-to-use, highlights the tightening control over supply. These adjustments are expected to cause the world wheat market to become more volatile and to see higher prices, which will have an impact on big importers who wish to Wheat Exporters and transform the face of agricultural commerce in the upcoming season.

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