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Potential Rise of 1.5 Million Tons in National Rice Production in 2024; Indonesia Targets Three Million Tonnes in Rice Imports


Published Date: January 30, 2024
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Professor Dwi Andreas Santosa from the Bogor Agricultural Institute (IPB) and a Research Associate at the Indonesian Center for Reform on Economics (CORE) have highlighted the potential for a 0.9 to 1.5 million ton increase in national rice production in 2024. In a discussion on the Economic Outlook for Strategic Sectors 2024 in Jakarta, Andreas also indicated the possibility of a decline in food prices this year. Moreover, the government has established a target of three million tonnes for rice imports in 2024. Andreas, on the other hand, foresees the potential for a 3-5 percent increase in rice production in the same year.

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Corn Prices to Drop as Global Production Surges

However, according to Andreas, the decline in rice production for 2023 is anticipated to be only 0.65 million tons. Consequently, there is a surplus stock of 2.65 million tons of rice. Thus, he emphasised the need to reassess the decision to import rice to avoid negatively impacting farmers.On a global scale, corn production has seen a significant increase of 6.9 percent, leading to an expected decrease in corn prices. Additionally, world rice production is projected to experience a slight uptick from 513 million tonnes in 2022/2023 to 513.5 million tonnes in 2023/2024. Soybean production has surged from 375.4 million tonnes in 2022/2023 to 399 million tonnes in 2023/2024, marking a 6.29 percent growth. This boost is attributed to increased production in Argentina, the United States, Russia, China, Paraguay, and Bolivia, although there is a decline in Brazil. Consequently, soybean prices are predicted to fall due to the substantial increase in production. Moreover, vegetable oil production has risen by 2.67 percent, moving from 217.2 million tonnes in 2022/2023 to 223 million tonnes in 2023/2024.

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