Now that more data about production and monsoon patterns in Asia is available, the price of rice is predicted to increase in June or July, having dropped to $600 per tonne on the international market. 

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In September 2022, India first outlawed the export of broken rice and placed a 20% tax on shipments of white rice. In addition to imposing a 20% duty on shipments of parboiled rice and prohibiting the export of white rice, it also set a minimum export price of $950 per tonne for basmati rice in July 2023. 

Rice Pricing in Asia 

According to traders and analysts, the period will coincide with the outcome of the Indian Lok Sabha elections, which could ease the country's current export restrictions if its buffer stocks are strong. "Parboiled prices from India are currently quoted between $515 and $520 per tonne, free-on-board. Prices have dropped as a result of weak demand and the Food Corporation of India finishing up its purchases”, according to an exporter from New Delhi. 

The Thai Rice Exporters Association reports that India's parboiled rice is quoted at $537–541/tonne, including freight, while Thailand quotes $604 and Pakistan quotes $601-605 per tonne. White rice prices have decreased to $602 per tonne for shipments coming from Thailand and to $575–585 per tonne for consignments coming from Pakistan and Vietnam. On July 20, 2023, India outlawed the export of white rice as a means of containing the rapidly rising costs of food grains. 

Rice Output 

The Food Corporation of India (FCI) has made data available that shows that during the kharif season, 70.86 million tonnes (48 million tonnes of rice equivalent) of paddy were purchased, while over one million tonnes (mt) of rabi were purchased, or 0.67 million tonnes of rice equivalent. In the previous year, 76.98 mt (51.54 mt) of paddy were purchased during kharif, and 1.15 mt (0.77 mt) were purchased during rabi. 

The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare estimates that India produced 123.83 million tons of rice in the kharif and rabi seasons, down from 125.51 million tons in 2022–2023. The results of Zaid, or summer rice production, which accounts for almost 10 mt, are still awaited. 

Chookiat Ophaswongse, President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, was quoted in Thailand's Bangkok Post as saying that local shippers should be optimistic that Thai rice prices should stay relatively high in the first half of this year as long as India maintains its ban on white rice exports. He said that the current quarter might see an increase in rice prices. 

The US Department of Agriculture projects that Thailand will produce 19.9 million tons of rice in 2023–2024—a 5% decrease from 2022–2023 as a result of reduced water availability. The estimated production for Vietnam is 43.2 mt, down from 43.1 mt the previous year. 

Procurement of Asian Rice 

"We are waiting on the Indian government to approve the start of exports. As of right now, we are only engaged in contract exports of government-to-government agreements," stated M. Madan Prakash, the Agricultural Commodities Exporters Association President. According to Chandrasekaran, nations like the Philippines and Indonesia are also significant global buyers of rice, primarily from Vietnam and Thailand. 

Since February 2024, there have been complaints of under-invoicing and shipments of white and steamed rice masquerading as parboiled rice. As a result, customs officials, especially in the ports of Thoothukudi and Chennai, have been closely monitoring rice exports. 

Analysts said that the forecast of La Nina weather, which brings more rain to Asia starting in July of this year, offers hope for rice-consuming countries, especially in Africa. In 2023–2024, El Nino weather—which appeared in June 2023 and brought dry weather to Asia, especially to India and Thailand—had an impact on rice production. 

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