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Encouraging Prospects for Domestic Production Output in the 2024 Sugar Industry


Published Date: February 02, 2024
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FPTS Securities Company commented on the 2024 world sugar prices, citing World Bank projections that anticipate a 6% decline to $490 per ton due to concerns over tight supply. The easing of supply concerns coincides with improved global manufacturing output and a more positive weather outlook. The current El Nino phase is expected to persist until mid-2024, followed by a shift to neutral weather conditions. Consequently, the latter part of the 2023/2024 crop year is anticipated to witness more favourable climate conditions for sugarcane cultivation and harvesting, potentially boosting global sugar output.

Based on the November 2023 forecast from the International Sugar Organization (ISO), the 2023/2024 crop year is projected to experience only a slight deficit of around 0.3 million tons compared to consumption demand, marking a significant decrease from the 2.1 million-ton deficit forecasted in August 2023.

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High Consumption Output

The Vietnam Sugar Association (VSSA) predicts that sugarcane processing in the 2023/2024 crop year will yield 10.6 million tons, marking a 9% increase from the previous period, and is expected to generate over 1 million tons of finished sugar, up by 10% - the highest output level since the 2019/2020 crop year.

In evaluating the performance of listed sugar companies, this Securities Company anticipates a slight decrease in business results, albeit remaining at a high level. Projected revenue for sugar businesses in the 2023/2024 crop year is estimated at 38,159 billion VND, indicating a decrease of nearly 1.6% compared to the same period, attributed to the average selling price averaging around 16,648,000 VND/ton, down by nearly 3.2% over the same period. Additionally, sugar consumption is expected to reach 1,755,000 tons, equivalent to the high base level of the 2022/2023 crop year.

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