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Australia Anticipates Larger Harvests as Rainfall Challenges El Niño Expectations


Published Date: February 01, 2024
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Australia is poised to produce much more wheat and other crops this year than previously thought after rainfall confounded expectations that an El Nino weather pattern would maintain dry and hot conditions, analysts and industry associations said. Australia is one of the world’s biggest agricultural exporters, shipping goods from wheat and barley to cotton and beef. The scale of the weather turnaround has been striking, with the driest three-month period on record between August and October giving way to what some landowners say is their greenest summer in memory. While rain has caused some flooding and crop destruction, higher overall production should lift the value of Australian farm output.

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Crop Forecasts Jump on Improved Conditions

The upcoming barley crop could be 2 million tons larger than if the rain had not fallen and around 200,000 more tons of canola could be brought in, according to consultants Episode 3. Commonwealth Bank forecast the next wheat harvest at 31.4 million tons, barley at 12.7 million tons and canola at 5.8 million tons. With those crops not yet planted and the harvest not due until around November, these numbers could change, said the bank’s analyst, Dennis Voznesenski. Sorghum and cotton are already in the ground and heading for harvest around April. Rod Baker at Australian Crop Forecasters said he had lifted his sorghum estimate to 1.7 million tons and some analysts predict up to 2.5 million tons, far above a government forecast of 1.5 million tons made in December. 

Cotton Australia, an industry association, has raised its production estimate to 4.4-4.5 million bales from around 4 million a few months ago. Rains have also boosted sugar yields, but this has been offset by damage to some northern cropping areas from flooding in the aftermath of Cyclone Jasper last month. If you are an agri-commodity importer wishing to buy agri-commodity in bulk or an agri-commodity exporter willing to export bulk agri-commodity, then Tradologie.com is the right platform for you.
 

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